What’s Your opinion as an foreign observer regarding “Who is going to win the 2023 Turkish Election? Erdogan or Opposition candidates?”
Staying in Istanbul since couple of years and watching the news on election in media. My observations are as follows:
This election was the best chance for the opposition to defeat Erdogan because of economic instability arising from numerous events like
o Covid 19 lockdowns & its effects
o Ukraine War
o High Inflation
o Devaluation of Lira
o 20 Years of Incumbency
o Unrest among youth
o Devastating Earthquake
This is one of the toughest elections faced by Erdogan. Above issues can easily topple any government who has lose control over administration. However, it seems the opposition was not able to capitalize the opportunity and only miracle can revive their hopes of winning due to the following reasons. (I’ll quote leading political figures on each issue to understand the ground situation)
1. Delay in selecting presidential candidate.
2. Differences among themselves
3. Difficulties in running government.
4. Lack of Positive manifesto with mass appeal
5. Bullying other candidates
6. Criticizing everything of Government
7. Using opportunities for votes
8. Foreign interferences
9. Response to mistakes
10. Standing on Core issues
Before going into details, lets understand the Turkey politics structure.
Vote share: AKP is getting over 40% votes in all elections since their formation, whereas CHP has vote share of around 25%. 8-9 % each is enjoyed by MHP & IYI party who are in opposite blocks. Around 10% is voter base of HDP (Kurdish mainstream party) which is bitterly opposed to ruling coalition. Rest of the votes are shared by mushroom of small parties; almost all of them below 1% voter base.
Cadre strength: AKP has large cadre base among all the strata of the society. CHP has a strong base among Secular Kemalist masses. IYI & MHP has its own Nationalist supporter base. HDP has strong Kurdish base which however is not reflected in its membership.
National reach: AKP has reach in almost all 81 Provinces of Turkey whereas CHP is concentrated in Aegean coastal belt with presence in Major cities. HDP has good following among Kurds mostly concentrated in South east. IYI & MHP has sizeable presence in Coastal Black sea and Mediterranean belts.
Ideology: In General, All Turks are nationalist. AKP is more popular among conservatives, whereas CHP is Liberal secularist. Both MHP & IYI has similar base of hardcore nationalist. HDP is Kurd based. Majority of Turks are moderately religious and avoid extremism, whereas they are constantly projected as liberal secularist.
Voters Participation: Turkey has one of the highest voters Turnaround in the world at 86% which is much higher than bigger democracies like USA, India, France, Germany etc.
Now coming to the reasons for not unto the mark performance of opposition
1. Delay in selecting candidate: Most people were expecting Istanbul or Ankara mayor to run for the election. IYI party chairwomen was insisting for them. She has not left any stone unturned in advocating their candidacy. However, CHP boss Kemal Kilicdaroglu was insisting for his candidature which was not having consensus. Some surveys were presented projecting both mayors to be more suitable candidate. Due to these differences the declaration of candidate was delayed till last moment.
When the candidature was announced, big infighting started and IYI party walked out of the alliance only to return back later with the demand that both the mayors should be the vice presidents.
Opposition journalist Ismail Symaz: Did they know that there would be a crisis in the matter of identifying the candidate? Did they delay it on purpose?!
When one of them used to ask them, saying: “Disclose your candidate,” they would accuse him of not knowing politics and of serving the goals of the authority, but what happened now?!
They were making excuses that Erdogan and his media machine were going to start smearing the presidential candidate and that they should delay announcing the name of the candidate.
But what happened now?! The reputation of the consensual candidate was tarnished without Erdogan's need to intervene. Rather, if it was only the candidate whose reputation was bad, it would have been easy. Now the dreams of the nation's alliance and the hope of overcoming justice and development and reaching power are lost. They only discussed the presidential candidate once, 73 days before the election. On that day, the tables turned!
2. Differences among themselves: Six parties which constitute the opposition Alliance is diverse group of secularists, Nationalist & Conservatives with only main target to unseat the current president. Every party is having apprehensions that in future the minority 4 parties might be side-lined. Only CHP & IYI has considerable voter base while the other four are parties with less than 1% following which are used only to lure conservative voters away from ruling party.
Former Mayor of Ümraniye, Saadet Party member Mehmet Bingöl, expressed his support for President Erdoğan: "Our brothers in the Felicity Party are being used in a delusion. When they take the power, they will push you away. The People's Alliance must come back to power."
Saadet Parti's Sevim: Our party base is not satisfied with our appearance with CHP and HDP
Hürriyet Writer Abdulkadir Selvi: It is said that Kılıçdaroğlu has liquidated names close to Ekrem İmamoğlu. The candidacy of candidates close to İmamoğlu was withdrawn.
The CHP leader carried out a similar operation to people close to Muharrem İnce during the 2018 elections. A similar operation is now being carried out on Ekrem İmamoğlu. @Haberf
Journalist: Babacan's party is angry with Kilicdaroglu : The writer close to the government, Abdelkader Selfi: Kilicdaroglu will not give the Democracy and Progress Party 20 seats in Parliament, but rather they are told that "4 or 5 seats are enough", so the party leaders say that Kilicdaroglu "has sold us".
The Alevi sect: We disavow Kilicdaroglu 🇹🇷 President of the Alawi House Culture and Belief Association: Kemal Kilicdaroglu is not an Alevi and it is impossible for him to be. We Alevi keep the prayer rug in a dignified place and do not stand on it with shoes. I feel that we are facing an officer from the Crusades.
During the parliamentary pre-election organized by the IYI Party in Ankara, the parties attacked each other with chairs in the fight that broke out between the team of Deputy Chairman Şenol Sunat and the team of deputy candidate Adnan Beker. After the fight, the election was cancelled.
Freedom writer Mücahit Nes Turbil: Kılıçdaroğlu's next programs should be organized by the Felicity or Future Party staff. Their own staff will not be able to do this job, and will cause a new defeat to the 'Nation Alliance', which is a hope for different segments, at the ballot box.
Is Akşener deliberately ignoring Kilicdaroglu? 🇹🇷 The Good Party published banners on the roads of Istanbul showing the party's president, Meral Aksener, the mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, and the mayor of Ankara, Mansur Yavas, with the title "We will write history."
Anchor: Is the conservative faction already convinced of Kilicdaroglu?
Head of the Felicity Party Temel Karamollaoglu: It's hard to say this now, but I think they will be convinced with time.
Anchor: Does the alliance with the CHP embarrass you?
Head of the Felicity Party Temel Karamollaoglu: I know that there is a large sect that does not like this, but I see that this was necessary to change this system.
Aytuğ Atici, CHP In-Party Training Officer: Seeing a Saadet Party member as a candidate on the CHP list makes people uncomfortable, but they have to, otherwise they will lose. Parties that do not know their height and weight yet want a ministry.
Kılıçdaroğlu's; 2 to the Democratic Party, 3 to the Felicity Party,3 to the Future Party,
It is said that he plans to give 3 parliamentary seats to the DEVA Party. Babacan said, “We were promised 20 deputies, now 3 deputies are offered. It is not possible for us to accept this.”
IYI Party Ankara Provincial Chairman Faruk Köylüoğlu: 40% of our voters have reservations about Kılıçdaroğlu's candidacy.
Ahmet Davutoğlu, the Future Party's (GP) chairperson, warned: “There will be a lack of a third group in Parliament at this rate. The vast majority of the Nation Alliance’s 300 deputies will be part of the left-secularist wing. The second largest group will be nationalists. There would be a lack of balance if the conservative wing would be represented with fewer people.”
Mehmet Sevigen, 23rd Term CHP Deputy and close friend of Deniz Baykal: 💢 Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu excluded Kemalists and intellectuals from the party. If Deniz Bey was alive, he would not have worked for Kemal Bey. 💢 This party is not our party. Those who made Atatürk count became the party's administrators. @Haberf
Candaş Tolga Işık: The fact that the leader of the Democrat Party, which has zero percent of the vote, will become the vice president because he entered the alliance from the soil, did not cut it, and they are getting deputies into the parliament with the votes of CHP voters! Can Yücel asked for mercy: "I say blasphemy, not to attack me…
3. Difficulties in running government: They agreed to have total 7 vice president with equal powers; and all decision will be made upon mutual agreement. Experts believe the difficulties in operating with such mechanism.
Hikmet Tanriverdi, Advisor to the Chairman of the IYI Party:The first 3 years of Table of Six will be very difficult and painful. You can't please everyone. If you have 3 children at home, can you please all three? The mother is cooking at home, one says it's very good, the other says is there nothing else, the other says I can't eat this and gets up from the table.
Muharrem Ince: This table of six cannot win an election, and even if it does, it cannot run. They have a lifespan of six months. Where will they agree? The Libyan bill came, what will happen? CHP gave no. The IYI Party said yes. They determined a presidential candidate in 1.5 years, how will they appoint the Governor of Istanbul? @Haberf
Sabah Writer Mehmet Barlas: Go out on the street and ask people: "Can a table of 7 solve Turkey's problems?" You won't find a single person who says "Yes, it can solve" this question with complete peace of mind. But you can find millions of people who will say "Erdogan did it and he will do it again". @Haberf
Selçuk Özdağ, Deputy Chairman of the Future Party: 💢 5 Since the Chairman will be the deputy CB, a balance and inspection system has been established until the parliamentary system. 💢 Mr. Kılıçdaroğlu will not be a new single man even if he wanted to. Because there will be 5 separate controllers. @Haberf
Muharrem İnce: Six Tables does not give me any confidence. Like dynamite that will explode at any moment. It is also mixed whether it is six, seven or mixed. There will be no business from there. There is no skill, no partnership.
4. Lack of Positive manifesto with mass appeal: Opposition manifesto lack eye catching mass appealing slogans and program. Ruling party has announced many schemes like minimum pay hike, early retirement, recruitment in education and health, Lira strengthening, de-inflation, rebuilding earthquake homes etc. Whereas ruling party has lined up many new project launch during coming days to catch the voters attention. Opposition agenda promise to provide visa free entry in Europe is attractive option.
5. Bullying other candidates: Opposition highlight the authoritative way of functioning of current president. Where in He insist on following his way and give little care to dissidents. Same is being repeated with those who are having differences with opposition candidate. Trolling and bullying of people is at zenith; which is highlighted by IYI party and Muherram Ince the other candidate who was ex CHP member.
Muharrem INCE: Lynching, intimidating, stigmatizing, discrediting and forcing political parties to kneel on social media cannot be a method of negotiation. @Haberf
Good Party Deputy Yavuz Agir Alioglu (commenting on what happened after Meral Aksener withdrew from the Six-Party Table): 📌 We heard insults that we haven't heard in 25 years in 3 days. 📌 No one apologized and no one compensated us for what happened from the table, then they go out and talk about consultation and negotiation. 📌 I think our party and its president have been insulted. 📌 We can't take it as if nothing happened.
6. Criticizing everything of current Government: the main focus of opposition is to get rid of current president authoritative rule by criticizing all the work done by the government like Airport, TOGG car, diplomacy role, urban transformation etc will not give them constructive opposition face.
CHP Vice President Gulizar Besir Karaca: We will cancel the Akkuyu and Sinop nuclear power plants.
Enver Aysever, who is known for his closeness to the CHP, listed the expectations of the 6-party table from the presidential candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu: “You will lock the door of the Directorate of Religious Affairs and reduce it to the directorate. You will print religious books in limited numbers by the Ministry of Culture.” @Haberf
https://ahvalnews.com/kemal-kilicdaroglu/turkish-opposition-leader-slams-development-ataturk-airportDeva Party Chairman Ali Babacan also made statements on the subject in a program he attended. Babacan said, "You shouldn't call a car with a limited domestic part or added value as a domestic car,
Public TV presenter Ayşenur Arslan: (TOGG) is not native. How does our nation claim a car that they cannot buy or use and say, 'Oh good news'?
Ali Babacan: (Togg) I'm not a big fan of the term domestic automobile because it doesn't express it correctly. You even had its design done abroad, you imported many parts from abroad.
Ince argued the MP was found “reasonable for not opposing everything and calling it as is” and “loved for supporting current foreign policies, war on terror groups like the PKK, the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ), and appreciating efforts to advance the indigenous defense industry."
7. Using opportunities for votes: Incident like shooting around IYI office and CHP office by neutral persons without political affiliation and dramatization of these event to get political edge looks cheap publicity stunt.
IYI headquarter shooting incident
Correspondent of the Turkish state channel: The shooting incident at the good party headquarters was while chasing thieves who entered a construction site adjacent to the party headquarters, and there was no intention to attack the party building. The suspect turned out to be a construction guard with a licensed gun.
Good Party Chair Meral Aksener: I want to appeal to the dear people, today they attacked us and tomorrow your children are in danger, on the 14th of next May you will go to the polling stations and change this ugly and dirty system. I want to address women. They insulted me, slandered me, and slandered me just because I am a woman. If they do this to a woman involved in politics, what will they do to your daughters?
Honorable women, if you want this injustice and these ugly acts to end, then elect Kilicdaroglu as president and give your votes to the good party in the elections to be the first party in Turkey.
Ahmet Davutoğlu: Judging from the information Akşener gave, I do not believe that it was a coincidental attack. The attacker is firing at the 1st and 3rd floors. On the 1st floor, there is a picture of Mr. Akşener in the place he was aiming for. The symbolic value of this is huge.
8. Foreign interferences: Turks are core nationalist and hate foreign interferences. Interest shown by US and European politicians & Bureaucrats in supporting opposition will give common citizen a feeling that Turkiye might become pawn in western hand in present polarized world.
Support from the leader of the PKK, Mustafa Karasu, to the table of 6: Table of 6 created hope in society. The government says, 'I will destroy until there is not a single terrorist left' . We fought the biggest fight against Erdogan. The Alliance for Labor and Freedom will fulfill its responsibility. @Haberf
Ahmet Hakan's criticism of Ali Babacan: "In the past, expecting 'well done' from Europe was only a sign of an inferiority complex. Expecting a 'well done' from the current Europe is something much more despicable than an inferiority complex.”
From Muharrem İnce to Ali Babacan: "Politics is not made to get well done from Europe, but to get well done from the citizens."
9. Response to mistakes: episode of stepping on Prayer mat is politically publicized, best reaction was from Kemal Kilicdaroglu by accepting the mistake and apologizing but the way it was defended by his supporters will polarize the conservatives voters (whose votes cutting by lobbying Saadat and Gelecek party) reminding them of old days of Azaan and headscarf bans.
CHP Istanbul Deputy Mehmet Bekaroğlu: The prayer rug is only a carpet/rug, it is not sacred. These prayer rug beautifications of those who abuse Islamic and humanitarian things and convert them into money are nothing but abuse.
IYI Party Member Mehmet Aslan: It is not a mosque, it is not a masjid, it is not a place of worship, it is a hall with a carpet on a carpet for decoration purposes. A carpet or rug becomes a prayer rug only if prayer is performed on it. In addition, the religion of Islam is a religion of tolerance and goodwill. It does not even consider what is not intentional a sin.
Abdüllatif Şener: When you look at the photo, the prayer rug is not noticeable. There is one big carpet, and there are small carpets on that carpet. Moreover, those small carpets, which they call prayer rugs, are not oriented in the same direction. If you pray on it, they all look in the same direction.
Journalist Levent Gültekin: What is called a prayer rug is a small piece of carpet, where does its sanctity come from? Can't something designed as a prayer rug be used as a cover or carpet somewhere? Their problem is not prayer rugs, but religious abuse.
The best response was from Kemal himself Just apologize and leave it to nation to decide
Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu: I'm sorry, I'm very sorry that I couldn't see the prayer rug. I don't want to hurt anyone in the world, especially my nation. From here, I leave the abusers and the propaganda apparatus they use to the conscience of our nation.
10. Standing on Core issues: As the nation Alliance is from diverse background will they unite in many core issues where their ideologies differ will be a real test
CHP Deputy Mehmet Sevigen: • Is there a 6-table Blue Homeland, Libya, N. Iraq, Syria, Cyprus, Azerbaijan? • There is a quarrel over who will be the minister and who will be the vice president at the 6-way table. • People who have not been able to solve their own problems will not benefit the country. @Haberf
It was stated that Kılıçdaroğlu would appoint a veiled deputy for the first time in the history of the party: Fatma Yavuz, an LGBT supporter expelled from the Diyanet, became a candidate for the CHP. @Haberf
LGBT issues
Temel Karamollaoğlu: We should not forget that the family consists of a man, a woman and children.
He says that two men and two women came together and we are a family. Come on, where did you get that bullshit?
Does Babacan flirt with gays? 🇹🇷 Chairman of the Democracy and Progress Party, Ali Babacan, in response to a question about his view on LGBT rights: We accept each individual's lifestyle as it is, respect the lifestyle of each of our citizens, including LGBT people, and against state interference in the lifestyles of its citizens.
Conclusion:
This election is considered as tough fight hence both Cumhur Alliance & Nation Alliance is aligning with like minded parties as even 1% votes will have importance.
5 Key factors will be
- Youth voters: First time youth between 18 to 22 years will have major role to play. If they bend to any block then result matter.
2. Kurds votes: will they rally behind HDP in voting for Opposition candidate or look for Erdogan will be important.
3. Inflation: will the prices comes down before election matters
4. Undecided voters: will voter look for change or keep continuing with “once trusted then better continue”
5. Muharrem Ince share: If Muharrem able to get 4–5 % of anti Incumbency votes then it will help Erdogan to win
(Conservatives will back Erdogan whereas Liberal secularist will vote for Kemal)
Mehmet Ali Kulat, owner of MAK Research: The winner of this match will not win because he played well, but because his opponent played badly.
Levent Gültekin: Never in his political career have I seen Erdoğan as relaxed as I did in the last month. Either he's got a trick on his mind or he's completely accepted defeat.
Lets see the result on 15th May which will decide the way Turkey moves to new century.
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