Istanbul Earthquakes – Fear, Anxiety, Preparations

 

Istanbul Earthquakes – Fear, Anxiety, Preparations

Arshad Khan

Istanbul earthquakes have caused a big fear among its dwellers, people are afraid often listening to various geological expert’s opinions, analyzing them and deciding how to cope with it in case of disaster happens before them.

Earthquake are natural disasters which are unpredictable. It’s caused by movement of tectonic plates along the fault lines. Many major civilizations have faced the earthquakes where some perished and rest survived. Timing, intensity & location cannot be determined earlier. Some people do create a panic atmosphere whereas some take it as fun. Looking globally many major cities are near to faults line which has witnessed earthquakes in different timelines, but it still survives.

Let’s break it down carefully and logically:

1. Historical Reality: Istanbul (ancient Byzantium, then Constantinople) has indeed existed for around 2,600+ years since about 660 BC . Over its history, Istanbul has survived many strong earthquakes. Major ones include: 557 AD: Great earthquake during Byzantine Empire. 1509: "The Little Apocalypse" — a major earthquake during Ottoman times. 1766: Severe damage again.

So, survival over centuries doesn't mean the city is safe from earthquakes — it means it has rebuilt itself many times. (Just like cities like Tokyo or Lisbon after big disasters.)

2. Scientific Risk Today: Istanbul is scientifically considered at high earthquake risk because of the North Anatolian Fault. Scientists have studied stress shifts along this fault line. Historically, when one segment ruptures, the next often follows.

Seismologists predict that Istanbul has a high probability (around 60–70%) of facing a major earthquake (magnitude 7.0+) in the next few decades. This prediction is not based on fear or politics, but on actual geological movement data, GPS measurements, and earthquake modeling.

3. Is it propaganda? Concerns about earthquakes are real. But  some people do use natural disaster fear for political or economic reasons:

·         Insurance companies might exaggerate risks to sell more policies.

·         Political rivals could highlight earthquake risks to criticize city development or government action.

·         Real estate speculation might exploit earthquake fear to lower property prices and buy cheaply.

However, the base fact that Istanbul is earthquake-prone is grounded in real science, not a manufactured myth.

4. Balanced View: Is Istanbul dangerous? It is vulnerable, yes, but not unliveable.

Is it being exaggerated sometimes for gain? Possibly, in how loudly or emotionally the risk is presented.

Can Istanbul prepare? Definitely!

Modern engineering (like earthquake-resistant buildings) can greatly reduce the danger — Japan is a world example.

In short:  It is real and rational to recognize Istanbul's earthquake risk, but not reasonable to live in daily fear. Smart preparation, not panic, is the right attitude.

let's dive into some of the modern engineering and preparation Istanbul is using to face future earthquakes. It’s very impressive!

1. Seismic Base Isolation Systems

What it is: Special giant rubber and steel "pads" placed under big buildings, allowing them to "float" slightly during an earthquake instead of shaking violently.

Where in Istanbul: Sabiha Gökçen International Airport new terminal

City hospitals like Başakşehir Çam and Sakura City Hospital

Result: These structures can survive earthquakes up to magnitude 8.0 without major damage.

Example: Sabiha Gökçen Airport terminal uses over 300 seismic isolators — the biggest project of its kind in Europe when built!

2. New Urban Building Codes (Post-1999)

After the 1999 İzmit earthquake (magnitude 7.6, very deadly), Turkey updated its seismic building code.

Now all new major constructions must meet strict earthquake resistance standards:

·         Stronger concrete quality

·         Reinforced steel framing

·         Deeper and better foundations

·         More flexible building structures (important for absorbing shock)

3. Urban Transformation Projects ("Kentsel Dönüşüm")

What it is: Government projects to demolish old unsafe buildings and build earthquake-resistant ones.

Focus Areas: High-risk districts like Avcılar, Kadıköy, Kartal.

Goal: Replace thousands of old apartments before a major quake hits.

4. Early Warning and Emergency Planning

·         Istanbul has developed: Earthquake early-warning networks using sensors along the fault.

·         Public training drills and emergency education in schools and offices.

·         Designated evacuation areas in neighborhoods.

·         Apps and text message systems are being tested to alert people seconds before shaking begins.

5. Scientific Monitoring: Istanbul is constantly monitored by:

GPS stations detecting crustal movement. Seismographs picking up tiny earthquakes (foreshocks). University research centers like Kandilli Observatory (Boğaziçi University) and Istanbul Technical University are world-class in seismic research.

Visual Example: Here's a very simple visual of how seismic base isolators work:

Regular Building (No Isolation): Ground shakes → Building shakes violently

Building with Seismic Isolators: Ground shakes → Isolators absorb movement → Building moves slowly and safely.

 

Concluding, we can say that natural disasters are part of life. We need to acknowledge the force and prepare our selves to survive in such scenarios. More importantly believing that there is powerful Almighty who has control over everything, gives us the solace to have trust in destiny that whatever befalls has been destined for us but not to forget that efforts we need to do to save the humanity in the crisis.